Saturday, July 30, 2011

Returns for week ending 7/29/11

Returns for the past week:
Model portfolio: -8.1%
Actual managed account: -7.6%

NOTE: The DecisionPoint timing model switched to a NEUTRAL signal on Friday.
While the model portfolio moves to a 50% invested / 50% cash allocation, I intend to move my managed accounts to ALL cash until another Window of Opportunity (WOO) opens up giving us an improved return vs. risk scenario.

The model portfolio's return was -8.6% for the 4-week BUY period just ended. Most of that loss came last week, the final week of the BUY period. This loss nearly equals the maximum interim loss of -8.8% for any of the 16 previous BUY periods since the model's inception. (see chart)

In addition to the very short 4-week duration of the most recent BUY signal, there are other signs that the Market may be in the process of putting in a long term top. This would lead the Market into a correction or possibly even a bear market. This is no time to be a BUY-and-HOLD (BUY-and-HOPE) investor.

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