tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52932294147189060482012-02-16T11:32:12.750-07:00Strategic Growth ModelStock Selection + Market Timing
<br> <em> ... for absolute returns over the full market cycle </em>Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.comBlogger2541100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-23392533938622200302011-08-20T23:21:00.000-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.069-06:00Is the bear market far from over?With last week's severe market decline, several international stock indices are now more than 20% off their 2011 peaks, a level that most commentators consider bear market territory. While the S&P 500 and most of our domestic stock indices aren't officially in bear market territory yet, the current market reaction feels like it is far more serious than just a garden variety market correction. Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-34127863453559247412011-08-20T23:13:00.000-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.069-06:00Returns for week ending 8/19/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -3.46%Actual managed account: 0.0%NOTE: While the model portfolio moved to a 50% invested / 50% cash allocation on 8/1, I have moved my managed accounts to 100% cash until the return vs. risk profile is improved. This accounts for the difference between model (hypothetical) and actual returns.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-15859594043301101332011-08-13T10:48:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.070-06:00Returns for week ending 8/12/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: +0.71%Actual managed account: 0.0%NOTE: The DecisionPoint timing model threw a NEUTRAL signal on 7/29. While the model portfolio has moved to a 50% invested / 50% cash allocation, I have moved my actual managed accounts to 100% cash until the return vs. risk profile is improved. This accounts for the difference betweenStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-53274600759106258942011-08-07T21:26:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.070-06:00Where are we? Comparing 3 secular bear markets...Click to enlarge chartAnother interesting commentary and chart from Doug Short, implying that our current secular bear market may have a ways yet to run...Doug Short, "It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-26142440502816376102011-08-07T21:10:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.070-06:00What does a 4% down day mean re: Market ConditionInteresting commentary from Doug Short, saying that the -4%+ down day last Thursday indicates that the bear market has resumed. Doug Short, "My tentative conclusion is that, at least since the onset of the 21st Century, declines in excess of 4% happen in cyclical bear market declines. The one outlier during this time frame was a 4.28% decline on April 20 2009, about six weeks after the 2009 low.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-19530983356713799722011-08-07T20:54:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.070-06:00Returns for week ending 8/5/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -4.6%Actual managed account: -0.7%NOTE: As noted here last week, the DecisionPoint timing model threw a NEUTRAL signal on 7/29. This proved to be a timely signal, enabling our portfolio to neatly side step last week's waterfall decline. While the model portfolio shifted to a 50% invested / 50% cash allocation on Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-25598514908284935222011-07-30T15:56:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.070-06:00comment re: DecisionPoint timing modelDecisionPoint recently commented on their market timing model and its performance over various time frames. Also commented on what the recent "whipsaw" signals might mean re: current market conditions. I chose DecisionPoint to provide my market timing model because of its long term track record and its consistent, math driven approach. Enjoy."2010 TIMER DIGEST RANKINGS FOR DECISION POINT #16 Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-50871239759778602692011-07-30T15:27:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.071-06:00Returns for week ending 7/29/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -8.1%Actual managed account: -7.6%NOTE: The DecisionPoint timing model switched to a NEUTRAL signal on Friday. While the model portfolio moves to a 50% invested / 50% cash allocation, I intend to move my managed accounts to ALL cash until another Window of Opportunity (WOO) opens up giving us an improved return vs. riskStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-56657765365998999242011-07-23T11:37:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.071-06:00Returns for week ending 7/22/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -1.0%Actual managed account: -1.1%Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-58422226808281598852011-07-18T05:57:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.071-06:00Returns for week ending 7/15/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -2.6%Actual managed account: -2.5%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $286,816Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-32299367240732863192011-07-08T23:25:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.071-06:00Returns for week ending 7/8/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: +2.1%Actual managed account: +1.6%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $294,593The gap between the actual managed account's returns and the model portfolio's hypothetical returns is mainly due to tracking error. Because the hypothetical returns are based on Friday's closing prices, while the Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-85203490858928808132011-07-03T19:35:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.072-06:00Returns for week ending 7/1/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: +1.2%Actual managed account: +0.4%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $277,131Note: The model portfolio and my managed accounts were holding a high amount of cash going into this week, while awaiting a fresh DecisionPoint BUY signal. This explains the lower-than-market returns shown Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-57469375059874806022011-06-25T15:12:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.072-06:00Returns for week ending 6/24/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: +0.9%Actual managed account: +0.4%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $273,728Note: It's time to be prepared. History shows that, on average, the stock market provides just one or two opportunities each year to buy stocks at relatively depressed prices. These Windows Of Opportunity (WOO) Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-35431048922350171482011-06-18T17:39:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.072-06:00Click chart to enlargeThe above chart shows the model portfolio's return for each of the "BUY-NEUTRAL-SELL" signal periods since inception. The Strategic Growth Model takes its BUY-NEUTRAL-SELL timing signals from the DecisionPoint Thrust/Trend Model. The most recent BUY period ended the week of 6/10/11. The model portfolio returned +28% for the 39 weeks of the BUY period, triggered 39 weeks Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-2760443614254015162011-06-18T17:31:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.072-06:00Returns for week ending 6/17/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -0.5%Actual managed account: -0.4%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $271,359Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-77749155840096942262011-06-10T20:10:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.073-06:00Returns for week ending 6/10/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -1.7%Actual managed account: -1.0%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $272,596The DecisionPoint.com Thrust / Trend Model is now on a NEUTRAL signal as of today. The TTM drives the model portfolio's target allocations. Upon receiving a NEUTRAL signal, the model portfolio halves its position Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-37743397375819781742011-06-04T17:40:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.073-06:00Returns for week ending 6/3/11Returns for the past week:"New" model portfolio: -1.6%Actual managed account: -0.5%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $277,344I continue to hold significantly more cash in my actual managed accounts than in the model portfolio shown here as we await a fresh T/TM BUY signal. This accounts for the difference in performance between the Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-89823449635320977772011-05-28T15:49:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.073-06:00Returns for week ending 5/27/11Returns for the past week:"New" model portfolio: -1.3%Actual managed account: -0.6%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $281,711Note: In my managed accounts I continue to hold more cash than the model portfolio. I expect to continue with a higher cash balance for the duration of this intermediate cycle. e.g. until the Thrust / Trend Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-61622769833336814222011-05-21T10:10:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.073-06:00Returns for week ending 5/20/11Returns for the past week:"New" model portfolio: -1.5%Actual managed account: -0.5%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $285,277Click below for next week's holdings.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-333246656986918532011-05-15T13:47:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.074-06:00Returns for week ending 5/13/11Returns for the past week:Model portfolio: -3.2%Managed account (actual): -1.9%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $289,727Note: In my managed accounts I continue to hold more cash than the model portfolio. I expect to continue with a higher cash balance for the duration of this intermediate cycle. e.g. until the Thrust / Trend Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-91064837672934481652011-05-07T11:30:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.074-06:00Returns for week ending 5/6/11Returns for the past week:"New" model portfolio: -6.03%Actual managed account: -3.65%Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $299,129Note: "Actual" return varies from the model's return because I'm maintaining a higher cash position (approximately 50%) until the Thrust / Trend Model (TTM) gives us a fresh "BUY" signal.As I mentioned last Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-35776182937884478222011-04-30T17:20:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.074-06:00Changes to the Strategic Growth Model, continuedThis chart shows the Strategic Growth Model portfolio returns for each of the Thrust / Trend Model (TTM) signal periods since the model's inception in 2003, including the four interim losses that exceed -4%. It's an interesting visualization of the data shown in the earlier table.This picture clearly shows the benefits of putting 100% of funds to work in the best stocks at the right time, and Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-10151339030778569792011-04-30T15:00:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.074-06:00Changes to the Strategic Growth Model, continuedManaging risk vs. reward...There are two primary success factors required for the model to profitably align the portfolio's capital in accordance with prevailing market conditions... The model must 1) CONSISTENTLY determine the prevailing market conditions (BUY-NEUTRAL-SELL) and 2) allocate the portfolio's capital (long-short-cash) to take best advantage of the potential rewards while managing Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-48468504750111821072011-04-30T13:58:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.075-06:00Changes to the Strategic Growth ModelAs you will recall, the Strategic Growth Model (SGM) is designed to maximize returns over the full market cycle (Bull-Bear-Bull or Peak-to-Peak), and is comprised of two main elements... 1) Select stocks that are expected to outperform the market, and 2) Manage risk vs. reward by aligning capital (long vs. short) with prevailing market conditions. Rather than attempt to "predict" where the marketStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-59180271931031368262011-04-30T12:45:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.075-06:00Returns for week ending 4/29/11 Past week: Model portfolio - hypothetical return: -0.5% Value of $10,000 invested in model portfolio at inception in 2003: $62,688NOTE: For the first time, the holdings for next week show the "new and improved" Strategic Growth Model.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-47444523760550739232011-04-25T19:58:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.075-06:00The new and improved Strategic Growth Model This chart shows the hypothetical performance of the new and improved Strategic Growth Model portfolio, since inception in May 2003 through April 22, 2011, including its performance during the different phases of the intermediate cycle (BUY-NEUTRAL-SELL).The "old" model is shown for comparison, as is a 100% hedged model with no market timing, and the benchmark S&P 500 index.The new model uses Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-71650850016000422702011-04-24T22:24:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.075-06:00Note from SteveWhile the model portfolio's "full cycle" performance since the market top in October 2007 is impressive (+63% vs -17% for the S&P 500), its performance since the historic market bottom (Spring 2009) has significantly lagged the market, which has been extremely frustrating. In this note, I'll pass along some findings from my recent post performance analysis, and explain some changes I'll be makingStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-79544683632340585102011-04-23T16:19:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.076-06:00Returns for week ending 4/22/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.5%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $63,007Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-91839523821626063042011-04-18T08:21:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.076-06:00Returns for week ending 4/15/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.0%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $62,101Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-27987922507192929472011-04-10T20:57:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.076-06:00Returns for week ending 4/8/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.4%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $61,525.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-32716621786098641062011-04-02T13:43:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.076-06:00Returns for week ending 4/1/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.5%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $61,763Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-63436708505334723992011-03-27T07:35:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.077-06:00Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-40807791973368977132011-03-13T20:21:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.077-06:00Returns for week ending 3/11/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $57,567Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-48921654101543342092011-03-06T20:35:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.077-06:00I've been traveling extensively and will post performance data later.Since May of last year, the model stocks have greatly outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 2 to 1. However the hedge against the small cap stocks (TWM) has negated that gain. As a result, at least one of our investors have removed a portion of the hedge by carrying a smaller weighting of TWM resulting in a portfolio that isStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-10938663850799981372011-02-21T12:54:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.077-06:00Returns for week ending 2/18/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $57,714Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-21460288773459396042011-02-14T21:23:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.077-06:00Returns for week ending 2/11/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.8%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $57,511Due to a vacation, I'm posting this one day later than usual...Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-62560452430283604142011-02-07T07:23:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.078-06:00Returns for week ending 2/4/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +3.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $56,494Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-13800137673913701152011-01-29T12:42:00.003-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.078-06:00Returns for week ending 1/28/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.2%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,373Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-1244991288147480482011-01-24T06:31:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.078-06:00Returns for week ending 1/21/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -2.5%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,017Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-8541628772094529842011-01-15T16:06:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.078-06:00Returns for week ending 1/14/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.0%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $56,447Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-17832508947101250222011-01-09T23:51:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.079-06:00Returns for week ending 1/7/11Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,874Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-45450141199902506792011-01-02T19:48:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.079-06:00Blog ReturnsReturns for week ending 12/31/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,733Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-67041412873788556722010-12-27T11:33:00.003-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.079-06:00Returns for week ending 12/24/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,540Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-82387149143777243462010-12-19T22:43:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.079-06:00Returns for week ending 12/17/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -01.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,658Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-31044199224386314062010-12-14T06:00:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.079-06:00Returns for week ending 12/10/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.8%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,534Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-16657816645599547162010-12-09T20:37:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.080-06:00I'll be out of town and unable to update the portofolio until mid week. Just maintain your current positions until I send out the update. That's what I'm doing in my accounts and those that I manage.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-22178040571291207012010-12-05T15:17:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.080-06:00Returns for week ending 12/3/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.14%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,996Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-83889931697095116742010-11-28T21:56:00.002-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.080-06:00Returns for week ending 11/26/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.21%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $56,074Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-23734302376919284602010-11-22T00:35:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.080-06:00Returns for week ending 11/19/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.82%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,429Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-2356430448549504222010-11-14T22:58:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.081-06:00Returns for week ending 11/12/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.67%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,885Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-19567281125133816822010-11-08T00:28:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.081-06:00Returns for week ending 11/05/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,511Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-42601487702157091832010-10-31T19:13:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.081-06:00Returns for week ending 10/29/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.02%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,473Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-43960523942815001562010-10-24T21:25:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.081-06:00Returns for week ending 10/22/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.48%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $53,396Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-55105500753857969742010-10-17T23:14:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.082-06:00Returns for week ending 10/15/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.41%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,200.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-50531139666233358522010-10-11T00:24:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.082-06:00Returns for week ending 10/8/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -3.19%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,926Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-86531193938855004032010-10-03T19:45:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.082-06:00Returns for week ending 10/1/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.7%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,668Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-46875221544902496672010-09-25T13:21:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.082-06:00Returns for week ending 9/24/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.0%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,054Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-5190023323603716642010-09-22T08:22:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.083-06:00Don't be concerned that we are making changes to the portfolio mid-week. There is always some randomness in the price behavior of stocks and as it turns out, the stocks that we are selling have out-performed the stocks that we are buying this week so our portfolio actually profited from the delay of a couple of days. The reason for the delay is that my data provider was unable to deliver the Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-31911375139714030112010-09-22T08:21:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.083-06:00Returns for week ending 9/17/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.7%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $53,972Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-57972735219753454452010-09-19T19:39:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.083-06:00No update until Monday. My data provider is resolving some issues and hopes to have the necessary data available tomorrow. For this week only, we will enter our trades a day later than usual... before the market opens on Tues.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-39429298932846589902010-09-12T08:54:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.084-06:00Returns for week ending 9/10/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,340Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-9186465414607609082010-09-04T18:04:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.084-06:00Returns for week ending 9/3/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $53,640Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-2913555289969851082010-08-28T17:14:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.084-06:00Returns for week ending 8/27/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.2%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,130Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-19382043430486877502010-08-21T09:44:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.084-06:00Returns for week ending 8/20/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +2.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,765Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-53259024440354316282010-08-15T08:53:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.084-06:00note from Steve re: model portfolio's recent performanceIn the 16 weeks since I wrote my April note to you, I'm encouraged that the model portfolio has begun to perform more in line with its design goals and past performance. While overall returns are a quite moderate 2.1%, or 6.3% annualized, it has significantly outperformed its market benchmark. This can be attributed to two key factors... 1) The model portfolio's engine (the 10-stock portfolio) Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-39639072688887858782010-08-15T07:44:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.085-06:00Returns for week ending 8/13/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $51,447Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-87142750835742480012010-08-08T14:27:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.085-06:00Returns for week ending 8/6/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +3.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,484Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-62896874552457382852010-08-02T07:35:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.085-06:00Returns for week ending 7/30/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.8%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $48,850Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-64994203344153374562010-07-24T10:30:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.086-06:00Returns for week ending 7/23/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.8%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $49,251Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-1301761326305084862010-07-19T06:42:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.086-06:00Returns for week ending 7/16/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $49,632Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-83715199744790978392010-07-10T08:29:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.086-06:00Returns for week ending 7/9/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.4%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $49,328Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-76097759183645047872010-07-05T14:07:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.086-06:00Returns for week ending 7/2/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -3.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $49,127Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-67713662767910648802010-06-26T19:30:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.087-06:00Returns for week ending 6/25/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,800Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-54778689555900964732010-06-19T17:01:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.087-06:00Returns for week ending 6/18/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,866Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-33735125473813240382010-06-12T17:00:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.087-06:00Returns for week ending 6/11/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +1.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,804Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-78599676882138046322010-06-07T06:27:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.087-06:00Returns for week ending 6/4/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.42%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $49,995Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-11065392334228748572010-05-31T22:58:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.088-06:00Returns for week ending 5/28/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +3.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,713Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-36103267777941115342010-05-23T23:08:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.088-06:00Returns for week ending 5/21/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $48,800Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-54084626560614554772010-05-16T23:05:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.088-06:00Returns for week ending 5/14/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $48,732Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-74669499381971390042010-05-09T23:09:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.088-06:00Returns for week ending 5/7/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -3.0%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $48,587Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-23104609144586945842010-05-03T00:37:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.089-06:00Returns for week ending 4/30/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,111Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-71141325423116855772010-04-25T23:58:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.089-06:00Returns for week ending 4/23/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.8%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,406Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-8395244997793867962010-04-25T23:12:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.089-06:00Note from Steve re: models portfolio's recent performanceDear friends and family,The model portfolio's performance has been disappointing over the past 12 months as the market has rebounded from a historic bottom.Why? In short, the model portfolio's stocks (the portfolio's engine) have failed to outperform the market. There are many plausible reasons for this related to the nature of this bounce back rally, but the reality is that our stocks have not Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-46906904406545119102010-04-18T23:52:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.089-06:00Returns for week ending 4/16/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -2.2%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $50,798Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-68236993496074360342010-04-11T21:05:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.090-06:00Returns for week ending 4/9/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.50%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $51,938Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-67474357730486302912010-04-05T06:14:00.001-06:002011-08-21T00:25:58.090-06:00Returns for week ending 4/2/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -0.90%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,173Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-1022284689611533132010-03-28T23:09:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.090-06:00Returns for week ending 3/26/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.22%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,636Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-26615434632334664652010-03-21T21:47:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.090-06:00Returns for week ending 3/19/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.2%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,523Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-55640986282170238532010-03-14T22:08:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.091-06:00Returns for week ending 3/12/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.9%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $53,152Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-48981733114137192562010-03-07T19:21:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.091-06:00Returns for week ending 3/5/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.2%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,804Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-34788814842064099322010-03-01T06:28:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.091-06:00Due to my schedule over the next couple of weeks I am making an abbreviated posting and will update with a more complete posting at some point soon.Holdings for next week (10):CTRP NIHD TSTC HMIN GMCR ISRG BCSI NTY VNR MELIRemove half of the hedge (TWM) this week, resulting in a Net-50%-Long allocation. (Same as last week) (Note that TWM is a 2x leveraged inverse fund, so your TWM holding should Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-69304702353648589702010-02-20T01:04:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.091-06:00Due to my schedule over the next couple of weeks I am making an abbreviated posting and will update with a more complete posting at some point soon.Holdings for next week (9):BIDU TSTC HMIN ISRG GMCR MELI NTY VNR RAX.Remove half of the hedge (TWM) this week, resulting in a Net-50%-Long allocationStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-27055650125673153012010-02-14T17:16:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.092-06:00Returns for week ending 2/12/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $51,741Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-46561667467121897682010-02-08T07:55:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.092-06:00Returns for week ending 2/5/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -2.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $51,657Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-44941563735113770662010-02-01T05:59:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.092-06:00Returns for week ending 1/29/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -3.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,778Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-69869549088757230432010-02-01T05:55:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.093-06:00Returns for week ending 1/29/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -3.6%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $52,778Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-33545190922266940402010-01-24T21:47:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.093-06:00Returns for week ending 1/22/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -1.1%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $54,750Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-16095633509061438622010-01-18T09:47:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.093-06:00Returns for week ending 1/15/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: -5.0%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $55,328Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-41157490649513439332010-01-17T23:32:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.093-06:00Market closed for MLK DayWill post next week's holdings prior to Tues Market Open.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5293229414718906048.post-40322136381845424512010-01-10T19:43:00.001-07:002011-08-21T00:25:58.093-06:00Returns for week ending 1/8/10Model portfolio, hypothetical returns for past…1 week: +0.3%Value of $10,000 invested at inception in 2003: $58,284Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00492662967829830796noreply@blogger.com0